[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-01
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[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-01
Today I am resuming my propagation outlook. It will be issued daily at around 1400 UTC. I will be experimenting with content during the next 7 days so please have patience with me.
I will post my propagation outlook daily to all DX and propagation e-lists I belong to. Moderators that do not want this outlook posted please advise me directly at kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-01
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published 1400 UTC 03/08/22
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Past 24 Hour Period Geomagnetic Indices:
The Ap index has been at severe geomagnetic levels, with a peak at 122.
A previous 24 hour Ap index under 10 is good, under 7 for 72 hours consecutively is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions.
The Kp index has been at strong geomagnetic levels, with a peak at 7.
A previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 is good for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for 72 hours consecutively is best.
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Global HF 3000-30000 KC Propagation Conditions Expected:
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude-Poor To Fair
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Global MF 300-3000 KC Propagation Conditions Expected:
Expect poor then becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect good poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
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Noise (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
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During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
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Daily Space Weather Bulletins From SIDC Belgium And NOAA.
:Issued: 2003 Aug 22 1300 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 30822
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Aug 2003, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Aug 2003 until 24 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 049
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 050
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 021
COMMENT: Under the influence of a low latitude coronal hole, the solar wind
speed has steadily increased over the last 24 hours, while the density
decreased. It is now stable at 800km/s. Bz oscillates around 0 but is
predominantly negative. Consequently, the geomagnetic storm that started
yesterday is going on now, and remains at minor to moderate levels (mid-latitude
Kp=5), and will probably last for the next 48 hours, with possible temporary
lulls at active levels. None of the active regions on the disk are susceptible
to produce strong flares. New activity is currently appearing at the East limb.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX : 123
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 119
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 067
AK WINGST : 047
ESTIMATED AP : 055
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A number of small x-ray flares
occurred in Region 431 (S10W90) from its location just beyond the
west limb. The largest was a C4 at 21/1522 UTC. The largest region
presently on the disk is 436 (N07E17) but it appears relatively
simple and has not flared today. New Regions 438 (S31W31), 439
(N08W23), 440 (S08E12), and 441 (N12E48) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 431, 436, and an area not
yet numbered rotating around the east limb near S12E90.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The most disturbed period was from 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. ACE solar
wind data indicates the gradual onset of a coronal hole
high-speed-stream over the past 24 hours. Current solar wind
parameters include speed at about 700 km/s, density from 1 to 5
p/cc, and Bz fluctuating between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the
duration of the forecast period as the high-speed-stream disturbance
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 119
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 040/052
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 60/60/60
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 65/65/65
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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