[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05
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[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Wednesday 03/08/26 At 1400 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
The influence of Coronal Hole #052 on the geo-magnetic field continues to weaken and should end within 24 hours. It does continue to produce an elevated Kp index, which was a 4 (active) at 1200 UTC today.
It appears that Coronal Hole #053 located in the Sun's southern hemisphere may now become geo-effective (Earth facing) by 03/08/28 and may impact the geo-magnetic field with a Kp of 4-5 (active to minor storm).
Coronal Hole #54 is just now making it's appearance around the eastern limb of our Sun and is still days away from becoming geo-effective.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions.
The filament loop eruption that occurred on 03/08/25 at 0250 UTC from sunspot group #10442 in association with a long duration C3.6 flare, did hurl a lopsided partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection into space. Renewed strong to severe geo-magnetic conditions are not expected.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at minor geomagnetic storm levels, with a peak at 48.
A previous 24 hour Ap index under 10 is good, under 5 for 72 hours consecutively is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at minor geomagnetic levels, with a peak at 5.
A previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 is good for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for 72 hours consecutively is best.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair to good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect poor to fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
Propagation Forecast Reception Scale-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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