[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-06
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[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-06
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-06
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Wednesday 03/08/27 At 1400 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Coronal Hole #053 is now in a partially geo-effective (Earth facing) position as of 03/08/27 and is impacting the geo-magnetic field with a Kp of 3 unsettled to 4 active.
Coronal Hole #054 will become geo-effective on 03/08/28.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 conditions possible towards the end of the week, courtesy of Coronal Hole #054.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak at 21.
A previous 24 hour Ap index under 10 is good, under 4 for 72 hours consecutively is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak at 4.
A previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 is good for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for 72 hours consecutively is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
By the way as we approach the Fall/Winter Equinox propagation conditions become more balanced as the number of hours of sunlight and darkness are equal in both hemispheres.
Also the negative affect of the solar wind on the magnetosphere increases as we approach the Fall/Spring Equinox. Why? Basically it's the orientation of Earth's magnetic field with respect to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field within the Solar Wind. When solar material and shock waves reach Earth their effects may be enhanced or dampened depending on the angle at which they arrive.
As we move towards Southern Hemisphere Summer, critical frequencies will be lower with skip distances longer. This means that the highest bands will not be open as often but the higher bands will stay open longer into the evening hours.
As we move towards Northern Hemisphere Winter, critical frequencies will be higher with skip distances shorter. This means that the highest bands will be open more often but the higher bands will close sooner during the evening hours.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected propagation conditions.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200 best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good To Fair
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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