[HCDX] Where's the Beef? Propagation update, 1820Z 25-X-2003

[Tomas (NW7US) <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Well,

where's the beef?  Er, where's the storm?  Just as I stated, this was a non-
event.  No historically major storm took place.

Just as I had predicted, the bands are hopping, today.  I live in a valley 
surrounded by mountains on three sides.  I use a dipole antenna.  I am hearing 
many stations on 10 meters, even more on 15, and a huge amount on 20.  I have 
worked N/S paths, like TI5A and LT1F, on 10 meters.  They report propagation as 
being moderate to good.

At the time of my writing this, the figures are:

10.7-cm Flux: 191
Ap: 36
Kp: 3 (36 nT)
Solar Wind: 511 km/s at 2.2 protons/cm3
On 2003 Oct 25 1813Z: Bz: 10.8 nT

Looking at the trend of the Kp at several reporting locations, the highest was 
5, most were 3 or 4, since last night.

The latest flare was a C-class.  There is a chance, still, of a more powerful 
flare.  So far, though, we have had great sailing.

On the shortwave bands, last night and this morning, conditions were fair.  I 
heard some paths open that have not normally been open.  Other paths were 
closed, that normally were open.  This follows with the way conditions are 
going.

There is a chance for a glancing blow from a passing CME sometime late today and 
tomorrow.  The Bz might turn negative during such a grazing passage of the CME, 
so we might have some elevation in the Kp late today and early tomorrow.  
However, conditions should continue to be useful for the contest period.

At least, in my humble opinion.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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