[HCDX] Three X-class flares! Propagation Update 3-XI-2003 1300Z

[Tomas (NW7US) <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

3 November 2003 - 1330 UTC

At the time of writing this bulletin, there has been three X-class flares in 
less than 24 hours.  The first was an X8.3 flare from region 486 on 2-XI-2003, 
at 1725Z.  Then, today (3-XI-2003) at 0130Z there was an X2.7 flare from region 
488, followed at 0955Z by an X4.3 flare from the same region.

The CME associated with the X2.7 flare probably will not reach Earth.  A radio 
burst was associated with the X4.3, indicating a possible CME for this flare, as 
well.  However, due to its position, it is doubtful if this CME will impact 
Earth.

At the moment the geomagnetic conditions are quiet, with the The north-south 
interplanetary magnetic field component (Bz) remaining positive.  There is a 
flow from a small coronal hole in the sun's southern hemisphere that is expected 
to arrive now.  It is hard to know if it has arrived due to the loss of ACE data 
due to the proton storm.  The proton event associated with the X8.3 flare 
continues, and is extended somewhat by these new flares, masking some of the 
readings we use.

The CME associated with the X8.3 flare will glance us sometime late on 3-XI-2003 
to mid 4-XI-2003.  We expect a possibly strong geomagnetic storm in the next 24 
hours, as a result.

The solar 10.7-cm flux is starting to drop, but is still high enough to support 
propagation on the high HF frequenies.  The low bands will suffer somewhat when 
the Kp index starts to rise later today due to shock expected from the CME, and 
from the flow from the current coronal hole.

Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003, 
and things should quiet down somewhat. Until then, some additional flare 
activity is possible. The coronal hole activity, however, will continue.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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