[HCDX] HF/LF/MF Propagation Outlook

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

As I'm sure many have noticed HF propagation conditions have been pretty
good lately. Even LF and MF conditions have begun to improve for the first
time in many weeks. We have managed to put together a string of 10 days with
high solar flux, high sunspot number, low background x-ray flux and no
geomagnetic storming. As a result I've been doing allot of AM operation on
10 meters around 29000 kc, SSB operation on 12 meters, PSK31 operation on 15
meters and allot of SWLing on 13 meters and I can tell you that the bands
have been wide open. I've also seen DX begin to roll in on 160 meters, the
MF AM broadcast band and even the LF broadcast band.

Unfortunately though we are coming to the end of our present long run of
good and improving propagation conditions. Earlier today between 0940-0957
UTC Sunspot Group #10508 which had already set behind the western limb of
the Sun, released a C7.2 proton solar flare from a related solar filament
and an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Fortunately the CME was not
geoeffective (Earth facing) so will have little negative affect on the IMF
and Earth's geomagnetic field. However the energetic elevated proton event
has already surpassed >10MeV (10+o), which will create Polar Cap Absorption
(PCA) on LF/MF/HF high and maybe for a time mid latitude propagation paths
during the next 48 hours.

Also recurrent Coronal Hole #071 will become geoeffective beginning on
12/5/03. As #066 on 11/9-14/03 it produced a Kp of 6 (moderate geomagnetic
storm) and I expect at least a Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storming) this
time around.

Overall I expect to see degraded propagation conditions on LF and MF and
also on HF on high latitude propagation paths as the week unfolds but not a
total collapse as we have seen during the past two months.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E Group
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840
160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Friend Website Design www.kn4lf.com





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