[HCDX] KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2005-012

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2005-012

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published Friday 03/25/2005 At 0000 UTC Valid 03/25-31/2005

DISCUSSION-

I'm back after a one week hiatus. Did anyone miss my outlooks? :<))

The period 03/11-24/2005 was quiet with two brief active periods due to high
velocity solar wind streams from geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole 
#'s151
and 152.

Due to the low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced MUF's that
negatively impacted 10 and 12 meters. But we still saw some intermittent
east-west F layer propagation on 10 and 12 meters due to near equal day and
night time in both hemispheres as we approached the Fall/Spring Equinox.
There were also some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6, 10 and 12 meters.

There was minor increased night time signal absorption on the MF AM
broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.

There was minor increased signal absorption on the LF band at nighttime and
minor enhanced propagation conditions at daytime.

At times lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160 and 80 meters and
to a lesser extent on 40 meters.

-----

With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline
and also due to seasonal changes in the F layer we will not see any 
appreciable east-west F layer propagation on 10
and 12 meters.

I expect LF and MF propagation conditions to "SLOWLY" improve during the 
upcoming seven day period.

By the way, just a reminder that the effects of the solar wind on Earth's
magnetosphere decreases as we approach the Summer/Winter solstice and
increases at the Fall/Spring Equinox. Why? Basically it's the orientation of
Earth's magnetic field with respect to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
within the Solar Wind. When solar material and shock waves reach Earth their
effects may be enhanced or dampened depending on the angle at which they
arrive.

Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and
SWL radio operations thanks to the continuing weak El Nino, mainly in
eastern Oceania and North and South America, including the Caribbean.


SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

During the period quiet (Kp-0-2) geomagnetic conditions "WILL OCCUR".

During the period unsettled to active (Kp-3-4) geomagnetic conditions "WILL
OCCUR".

During the period minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming is "POSSIBLE".

During the period moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming is "IMPROBABLE".

During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7-9) geomagnetic storming "WILL NOT
OCCUR".

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to
excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is "LOW".

The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is "LOW".

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is
"LOW".

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is "HIGH". CH #'s
153 and 154.

Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-75

No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma
twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.

However newly emerged sunspot group #10745 at N12E15 is growing in size and
magnetic complexity and will become capable of producing large M class solar
flares.

The chance of a small C class solar flare is "HIGH".

The chance of a large M class solar flare is "LOW TO MEDIUM".

The chance of a huge X class solar flare is "LOW".

Propagation Forecast Scales-

LOW- 25%

MEDIUM- 50%

HIGH- 75%



GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Daytime- Poor.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals, good for broadcast signals.



GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Low Latitude- Good.

Mid Latitude- Good.

High Latitude- Good to at times fair.



GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-



-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect POOR TO FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Northern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on south "TO"
north paths out to approximately 1100.



-Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect POOR TO FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.



Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100
miles should be GOOD.



"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.


"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.


"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200
miles should be GOOD.

"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200
miles should be GOOD.



Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation
conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation
conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.



Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation
conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation
conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.



Propagation Forecast Scales-

Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3



GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)

Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer
available.

https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp

During the 7 day outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere tied to
winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms,
cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure
systems and El Nino.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW"
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms,
cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems and El Nino.




During the outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced
QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the
proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical
cyclones.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
lightning induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical
cyclones.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW"
lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms,
cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.



END OF OUTLOOK



SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 03/11-24/2005


Sunspot Groups-

No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature
that produced M or X class solar flares.

Solar Flux Readings- 115-87. My forecast was for ---.

SEC Sunspot Number- 77-35

Solar Wind Speed- 573-293

Solar Flares- C-16  M-0  X-0

Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- B1.8-A6.2

Dst Index- -85 To +15

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- 0

Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0

Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0

Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 3, CH #151, 152, 153

No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to
excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).

The Ap index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic levels, with a range of
2-39.

The Kp index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a
range of 0 to 5.

The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic
storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.

The high latitude K index has been at quiet to moderate geomagnetic storming
levels, with a range of 0-6.





***Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation
indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, with the exception of solar flux
and sunspot number on HF.

2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is
best for E layer multi hop. For high frequencies over 125 is good, over 150
is better, over 200 is best.

Keep in mind though that at medium frequencies the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million
times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a
hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See
#7.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF AM broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively
for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current.


TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -

16.) Solar Flare-

A day side earthward bound solar filament and/or approximate C5 class or
higher solar flare can move the proton flux >10 MeV (10+0) and initiate
large scale high latitude propagation path absorption but even smaller C4
class flares and weaker are the culprit behind hour-to-hour and
night-to-night variations in signal strength on the AM broadcast band and
160 meters, both stateside and DX. This transfer of increased density and RF
signal absorption from the day-side D-layer to night-side of the ionosphere
occurs through high level neutral winds.

X-Ray Class Solar Flare. The rank of a solar flare based on its X-ray energy
output. Flares are classified by the order of magnitude of the peak burst
intensity (I) measured at the earth in the 1 to 10 angstrom band as follows:
Class (in Watt/sq. Meter)
B- I less than (l.t.) 10.0E-06
C- 10.0E-06 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-05
M- 10.0E-05 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-04
X- I g.e.= 10.0E-04

Background radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard X-Rays), as well as
Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays is the source of ionization of the D-layer.

Basically a C-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level of an M-
class solar flare and an M-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level
on an X-class solar flare. (See definition #15. Shortwave Fadeout).

Solar flares are not random meaningless explosions but instead a process
inter related with coronal mass ejections (CME's) by which the Sun expels
complex magnetic signatures enroute to changing it's magnetic polarity or
said a different way the swapping of the Sun's magnetic poles. Basically the
Sun swapped it magnetic polarity at the peak of present solar cycle 23
somewhere between July 2000 and December 2001. The next polarity swap will
occur during solar cycle 24 somewhere around 2010-2011.

For more information go to KN4LF LF/MF/HF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory
Notes at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm .



Space Weather Scales-

Kp Indices-

G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3



Ap Indices-

Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet

Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-

K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400



Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center,
as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for
profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks
that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein
is copyrighted © 1988-2005 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of
information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only
and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or
warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@xxxxxxxx

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation

HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm









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