[HCDX] Re: [Propagation] Strong to Severe Geomagnetic Storming Occurring

["NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Fri, 7 Jan 2005 20:26:34 -0500, Thomas Giella KN4LF  
<kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> As hard as it may seem to believe no other global propagation  
> forecasting entity whether it be governmental, educational or private  
> predicted this geomagnetic storm.

Actually, the "storm" was predicted by several forecasting agencies.  The  
magnitude of any forecast is always fuzzy, of course.  For instance, the  
following gave indication that a storm was possible:

:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2005

<snip>

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to  
range from quiet to minor storm levels. Weak transient flow from CME  
activity on 04 and 05 January may create occasional active periods on 07  
and 08 January. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 09  
January.

In addition, my Last-Minute Forecast shows degradation/storming for today,  
as well.  In my US Army MARS Net Planning Forecast for my region, I  
indicated the degradation of HF for regional communications.

Cory of SpaceW also had watchful comments, and has also released an Aurora  
watch for Mid-latitudes, now confirmed by Amateur Radio VHF ops.

The origin of this storm is fuzzy, too - no major shock was detected as  
would be typical of a direct CME passage.  However, forecasts suspected a  
CME passage from recent events.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
: Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB :
: US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 :
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