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Re: [HCDX] New Sunspot Cycle 24: The Sun Awakens
A point of clarification:
While these three sunspots "are cycle 23 spots based on their
polarities", never-the-less, my bulletin does not state that these
sunspots are actually cycle 24 spots. Rather, I am pointing to the
new level of activity as a possible "waking up" of the sun after a
long period of quiet. And, that this could signal the gradual
increase of solar activity expected of a newly starting cycle.
Experts are not yet totally agreeing on the statistical end of cycle
23 - but are speculating that February 2008 was the statistical end.
Whether or not these sunspots are oriented correctly to belong to a
new cycle is not, in my opinion, as "important" to a radio operator as
is the actual 10.7-cm flux levels, and the occurrence of space weather
(flares, sunspots, and so forth). No one knows, yet, the certain end
and start points. We'll know when we can look back at the data.
Anyhow - some people are purists. I'm being nudged in my discussions
about the orientation of these spots. They are not reversed. So,
they must not be cycle 24's. However, that was not my point, and I
still hold that, in terms of the statistical end point (probably in
Feb 2008), this new level is part of the sun's waking moments. Take a
look at the forecasted Flux levels for the next few days. 95!!!
That's great for a radio operator on HF. Regardless of the
orientation of the sunspots... And yes, we probably will see some
very quiet points again. I'll venture, though, that they will be
shorter and shorter as we move farther into 2008.
- NW7US, Tomas
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