[HCDX] Fay almost over me

[<rfoxwor1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At the risk of becoming OT ... as a fellow Floridian ...

This is IMO an unfair slap at NOAA. The prediction
technology is very imperfect and they will be the first to
tell you so. The Tampa landfall guess was ancient history (and
I now live in (near) Tampa so I try to listen to what they are saying).
When you watch the weather channel etc. with detailed current
info, you soon learn of the "spaghetti models" which are the
dozen sometimes widely divergent prediction tracks. They can't
all be right.

The worst fear at the EOC centers is a major Cat 3 or more passing
northward, just west of St. Pete with the CCW wind rotation
shoving tons of water up into Tampa Bay. They believe that thousands
in Pinellas Co. will wait until it is too late to get out, being dependent
on 3 cross-bay bridges and the Skyway bridge, or Rte 19. When this
happens I suppose they (the survivors) will all blame the prediction
models too. Tampa has dodged the bullet again but that can't last
forever.

- Bob


>     but the weather reports said that Fay wouldn't even
> come close to Clewiston.  They said it would make landfall near
> Tampa.  So I didn't plan on driving out of the range of Fay.   Instead Fay 
> is taking the same route that Wilma took back in 05.  I am still in "shell 
> shock" from Wilma.
> 
> Thank you NOAA for your good(??) work again.

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