[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
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[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
Thomas KN4LF Says:
It would appear that a full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has given us a major geomagnetic storm and prospects for some good MF propagation conditions are down the drain for now.
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:Issued: 2003 Aug 18 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 30818
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Aug 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2003 until 20 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 072
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 010
COMMENT: A major magnetic storm was triggered on Aug. 17 at 13:40UT by the
arrival of a shock in the solar wind, of which the source is uncertain (probably
a halo CME which was recorded on the Sun by SOHO/LASCO on Aug. 14 around 20:00).
When Bz, which was initially positive, switched to -20nT at about 1:00UT Aug.18,
the Kp index rose to values in the range 6 to 9 depending on the location. Since
then, Bz steadily decreased and the geomagnetic activity should decrease in the
coming hours, though staying elevated (active to minor storm) for the next 12
hours. Except for C-flares and a possible isolated M flare, no active region on
the Sun is expected to produce significant activity.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX : 151
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 119
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031
AK WINGST : 021
ESTIMATED AP : 020
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W38)
produced a C2 flare at 17/0426Z. Region 431 continues its slow
decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 436 (N07E69) was numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the chance of an isolated M-class event from Region
431.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the day and active late in
the day. At 1340Z, a shock passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft with a
100 km/s increase in solar wind speed to 540 km/s and an increase in
B-total to over 20 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained
northward during this time, resulting in active conditions on Earth.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one due to residual
effects from the shock. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 119
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/130/125
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
C/S KN4LF
4208 Thackery Way
Plant City, FL, USA 33566
EL87WX
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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