[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
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[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
:Issued: 2003 Aug 15 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 30815
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Aug 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Aug 2003 until 17 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA 0431) continues its growth unabated.
According to the latest observations from Catania Observatory, it now counts
more than 70 spots covering 0.07% of the visible solar disk. Its magnetic
configuration remains a complex beta-gamma-delta, and it looks certain to
produce more C-flares, and possibly an M-flare. At that time, 'satellite' groups
98 and 01, which are magnetically linked to group 96, may join in the fun. The
solar wind speed remains near 550km/s, with a mostly northwards oriented IMF.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX : 099
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 024
AK WINGST : 016
ESTIMATED AP : 018
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
----------
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E03)
continues to produce low level C-class flares and is showing a nice
sigmoid feature on SXI imagery. The magnetic delta structure remains
evident in the northwestern quadrant of spot cluster. The remaining
active regions have been quiescent throughout the period. Region
433 (S23E18) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Sustained
periods of southward Bz during night side regions allowed for active
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the interval. A
brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should make way
for active conditions on the first two days of the forecast period,
returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on day three of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 130
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 130/135/130
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/0173,
Thomas F. Giella
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
C/S KN4LF
4208 Thackery Way
Plant City, FL, USA 33566
EL87WX
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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