[DX] Auringon aktiivisuudesta ja MW-keleistä

["T&M Ritola" <ritola@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Jos tämä näkemys pitää paikkansa, tämä MW-kausi voi olla yhtä "huono" kuin edellinen, vasta syksyllä 2002 tilanne paranisi, mutta sitten jo selvästi (via EDXP/Bob Padula):

SPECIAL REPORT FROM ROBERT JONES, SYDNEY, NSW, AUSTRALIA.
********************************************************

There have been some interesting facts about Solar Activity for September, which
have not been widely publicised!

The daily solar flux on Sep-26 at 283 was the highest for this cycle! The
monthly solar flux average at 233.3 was also the highest recorded for this
cycle.

The monthly average sunspot number at 150.5 was the second highest this cycle,
compared with 170.1 for Jul-2000. The smoothed sunspot number is now slowly
RISING (!) again from the value of 104.2 centred on Mar-2001. The maximum was
120.8 in Apr-2000. The current SECONDARY PEAK might reach 109 for Sep-2001,
before the expected steep decline during 2002 to a value of around 75 at the end
of that year.

The high figures for Sep-2001 were due to the unexpected sudden increase in
activity in the southern hemisphere of the sun, which has been relatively quiet
since Mar-2000. The highest sunspot monthly averages for the southern hemisphere
were 84.7 in Mar-2000 and 81.6 in Sep-2001. In the more consistently active
northern hemisphere, the highest values were 92.8 in Jul-2000 and 89.1 in
Jun-2001. The actual smoothed maxima were 62.5 for the northern hemisphere in
Dec-2000 - also 62.4 in Mar-2000, and 59.2 for the southern hemisphere in
Apr-2000.

Finally, the Australian T-Index for Sep-2001 was 146.8 - the fourth highest this
cycle. Indeed, the T-Index and solar flux values this year have been similar to
those recorded in 1991 for Cycle 22. Therefore, propagation conditions over the
next six months can be expected to be quite similar to the equivalent 91/92
season - on the whole, very good for the higher frequencies.

(Robert is our Australian propagation expert analyst and has been investigating
all aspects of solar activity since the 1960's, as relevant to HF propagation.
We thank him for his submission! BP)


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