[HCDX] Daily Solar Space Weather And Geomagnetic Indices
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[HCDX] Daily Solar Space Weather And Geomagnetic Indices
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected propagation conditions. You can find more information at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm .
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200 best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a negative sign, indicates a better chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
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:Issued: 2003 Aug 16 1201 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 30816
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Aug 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Aug 2003 until 18 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007
COMMENT: After a short increase to 600km/s, the solar wind speed had decreased
again to below 550km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is now firmly
northwards. With no coronal hole influences or other perturbations expected for
the next few days, we have all reasons to believe that the geomagnetic
conditions will remain quiet. On the sun, growth in Catania sunspot group 96
(NOAA 0431) has come to a halt, and the group's size and magnetic complexity has
diminished a little. Nevertheless, we still expect C-class flaring activity in
this group. The likelihood of M-flares has been reduced, also because the X-ray
solar background is decreasing. At the northeastern solar limb, EIT and SXI
images indicate the presence of a new active sunspot group, which should become
visible by tomorrow.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX : 134
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 131
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019
AK WINGST : 016
ESTIMATED AP : 015
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S11W13)
exhibited little change in the past twenty-four hours. This region
continues to produce numerous C-class flares with the largest one a
C7 at 15/0018Z. Region 431 has decreased slightly in area coverage
but maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Analysis
of Region 433's (S19E10) growth and development indicates that the
trailing and leading spots are two separate regions. The trailing
spots were numbered as New Region 434 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two periods of
active conditions was observed. Solar wind speed remains elevated
near 600 km/s and Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible while solar wind speed remain elevated. Wind speed is
expected to decrease on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 131
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
73,Thomas F. GiellaSpace & Atmospheric Weather ForecasterC/S KN4LF4208 Thackery WayPlant City, FL, USA 33566EL87WX
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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