[HCDX] Last Large Geomagnetic Storm?!
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[HCDX] Last Large Geomagnetic Storm?!

The partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
expelled from the huge X8.3 solar flare that occurred on Sunday 03/11/02
impacted Earth's magnetic field beginning at approximately 0600 UTC on
Tuesday 03/11/04. The CME created an approximate 6 hour geomagnetic storm
that peaked at a strong Kp-7 G3 level at mid latitudes.
My forecast was: mid latitudes strong K-7 G3 to severe K-8 G4 storming.The
Bz only went negative for a short period of time limiting the strength and
impact of the storm.

Turns out that a full halo Coronal Mass Ejection was expelled from the X
class super flare yesterday. It's barely geoeffective but is moving
incredibly fast at 2380 km/s. Because of it's size it will probably trigger
a brief minor Kp-5 to moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storm on UTC Thursday
03/11/05.

Yesterday I estimated the super solar flare at an X30-40 level looking at
it's duration, brightness and 11-15 minute saturation of instruments. It's
not an easy thing to forecast it's intensity in an accurate manner. I saw
the following guestimates today floating around on the Internet.

SIDC Belgium X50
STD Canada X30-40
DXLC X25+
NOAA X20+

We should see a return to some semblance of space weather
normalcy after the latest pending geomagnetic storm. Hopefully this will be
the last special post and I can return to my 72 hour HF/MF radio propagation
outlook.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode  E-Group:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm




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